New Jobs Reports Yield Mixed Messages

Labor market reports released after the government shutdown present a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 10.

On a positive note, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 119,000 new jobs were added in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, more than double what many economists expected, but there was a downward revision of 33,000 jobs combined for July and August.

The unemployment rate was 4.4% in September. It remained low by historical standards, but it was higher than any period since late-2017 other than 2020-2021 which was impacted by the pandemic.

Another good sign is that initial unemployment insurance claims remained at a normal level through the week ending November 15 despite announcements of layoffs from several prominent companies.

Unfortunately, continued claims for unemployment were up by approximately 100,000 from the prior year. As of November 8, the weekly level reached almost 2 million and it was the highest since 2021. The trend suggests those losing their job are having a harder time finding their next role.

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