Fern Impacts Q1 Economic Growth

Winter Storm Fern wreaked havoc on the U.S. this past week, with early estimates predicting more than $100 billion in total economic losses.

According to MarketWatch, analysts from Morgan Stanley believe the storm’s disruption could shave 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from Q1 GDP, potentially obscuring the true strength of the economy.

Some people reading this planned to attend a major multifamily conference in Las Vegas this week, but they were significantly delayed or completely unable to make the trip due to the weather impact. I was part of the latter.

Based on data from FlightAware, there were approximately 24,000 cancellations for flights within, into, or out of the United States from Saturday through midday Tuesday. To put that in perspective, cancellations averaged 350 per day last year.

The timing of the storm also coincides with earnings season for publicly traded companies. On upcoming investor calls, expect some of the multifamily REITs to discuss any disruptions to performance and damage to properties, as well as how they are mitigating them.

Broadly, there will likely be a temporary slowdown to in-person property traffic in locations where Fern hit the hardest. That could show up to a degree in Radix data starting this week and next.

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